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Iowa straw poll on the outs with GOP establishment

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Bachmann spent $2 million on the August straw poll and edged Texas Rep. Ron Paul with heavy support from religious conservatives.

"The straw poll doesn't provide a complete cross-section of the caucus-going electorate," said Phil Musser, an adviser to former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Pawlenty pinned his hopes on a strong finish in Ames last year but dropped out of the race for the GOP nomination after finishing third, never reaching the caucuses in his neighboring state.

Only about 17,000 turned out for the straw poll, one-seventh the size of the roughly 120,000 who voted on caucus night in January.

John McCain, the GOP's nominee in 2008, and onetime favorite Rudy Giuliani opted not to compete for the straw poll, turned off by the event's heavy influence by Christian conservatives. They ran scaled down caucus campaigns as a result.

Romney did not compete in the 2011 straw poll, choosing to project himself as a national candidate who didn't need to define himself among the Iowa GOP's rank and file.

But in 2007, Romney spent millions and won, only to struggle to a second-place caucus finish. A month later, he quit the race.

During that campaign, the former Massachusetts governor was so struck by the ferocity of opposition by Iowa Republican activists to illegal immigration that he tacked to the right to distinguish himself from Giuliani and McCain, who supported relaxed sanctions for illegal immigrants.

Doug Gross, a leading Iowa Republican who chaired Romney's 2008 Iowa campaign, said Romney's strong opposition to any pathway to citizenship or tuition benefits for illegal immigrants hurt him in the general election four years later against Obama, partly due to his effort to appeal to Iowa conservatives at the straw poll.

The straw poll "forces them to deal with extremists and you can't help but have some of that rub off on you," Gross said. "That hurts our ability to nominate candidates who can win."

Advocates of the straw poll argue the money helps finance the caucuses, which are party-run, not state-run, elections.

Instead, Branstad's allies are urging the party to substitute the straw poll with a summer fundraiser, without a vote.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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