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Syrian truce in tatters; both sides involved in bombings

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Military analyst Joe Holliday said neither side has an incentive to halt fighting, noting that rebels have disrupted regime supply routes to the northern provinces of Aleppo and Idlib. "The regime can't accept the current military status quo without a fight and the rebels have no reason to since they believe they have the momentum," said Holliday, a researcher at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.

Brahimi's spokesman declined comment Saturday on the apparent failure of his initiative. It's not clear what Brahimi's next move could be, since the international community is divided over the Syria conflict that erupted 19 months ago.

Assad allies Russia and China have shielded the regime against harsher U.N. Security Council sanctions, while the rebels' foreign backers have shied away from military intervention.

The U.S., meanwhile, is averse to sending strategic weapons to help the rebels break the battlefield stalemate, fearing they will fall into the hands of militant Islamists, who are increasingly active in rebel ranks. The al-Qaida-inspired Jabhat al-Nusra, for example, is believed to be on the front lines in Aleppo and near Maaret al-Numan.

When Brahimi, the U.N.-Arab League envoy, first floated the idea of a holiday truce, he did not say what his long-term plan was. Even a temporary reduction in violence during such a truce would not have been a springboard for talks between Assad and the opposition on ending the war. Syria's opposition says it will only negotiate if Assad resigns, a step the Syrian leader has refused to take.

Some said Brahimi's initiative allowed a paralyzed international community to show briefly that it was doing something to try to end the war that has claimed more than 35,000 lives and displaced hundreds of thousands.

Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center said the truce at least "provides the illusion of movement, that something is being done, that the international community is still trying to find a solution."

The U.S. said Friday that both sides have violated the holiday cease-fire, but singled out the regime. In the previous attempted truce six months ago, the Syrian military violated key provisions, such as withdrawing troops from urban centers, and was widely held responsible for the collapse of the cease-fire.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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