How will this election be seen in history? Obviously, it depends on who wins.

If Barack Obama is defeated, the irresistible comparison will be with Jimmy Carter. A one-term president was rejected after pursuing big government programs amid high energy prices and attacks on America in the Middle East.

A Romney victory would look like a refutation of the New Deal historians’ narrative – the idea that Democratic presidents increase the size and scope of government, voters ratify that, and Republican successors leave it alone till the next Democrat gets in.