The dry northern Illinois weather likely will affect the June corn and soybean estimates released Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The June Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports indicate the rate of consumption during the third quarter of the 2011-2012 marketing year and give producers an idea of how much supply will be available in the fourth quarter.
“In a normal year, it would affect what market prices would be,” said Roger Faivre, who farms southwest of
DeKalb. “The dry weather has taken a more important role.”
The reports show that corn stocks nationally are down 14 percent from June 2011 while soybean stocks are up 8 percent. The reports also show that corn acreage increased by 5 percent this year compared to last year, and soybean acreage increased 1 percent.
Dan Hueber, general manager of the grain marketing division at Diversified Services in Sycamore, said the national numbers were pretty neutral. He said according to the report, the nation’s corn supply should last until September.
But the dry weather could cause enough crop damage to affect yields, even after the short rainstorm Friday morning.
“The market’s more concentrated on ‘when’s the drought going to end?’ ” he said. “Inventories on both products are tight, to say the least. There’s little room for error on production.”
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of northern Illinois is under moderate drought conditions, while central and southern parts of the state have severe to extreme drought conditions. Dry conditions span through parts of Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio.
A tighter corn supply, coupled with falling gas prices, will likely cause stress for ethanol companies, Hueber said.
Roy Plote, a Victor Township farmer and independent commodity broker with Perfect Choice Investments, said the 325.8 million acres of principal crops planted in the U.S. this year was the most in almost a decade.
“Just because it gets planted doesn’t mean it’ll get harvested,” he said.
The 325 million acres of principal crops planted in the United States in 2008 was close to the number planted this year, and a little less than 310 million acres were harvested.
Even with 325.8 million acres planted this year, some analysts estimate the principal crop harvest would be closer to the 295 million acres harvested last year because of the weather.
“It will be difficult to reach harvest acres above 2008 harvested acres,” Plote said.
An estimated 13 million acres of corn were planted this year in Illinois, up by 400,000 acres from last year.
Also in Illinois, 8.6 million acres of soybeans were planted this year, 300,000 acres fewer than last year.
An estimated 660,000 acres of winter wheat were planted last fall in Illinois, which is 140,000 acres fewer than what was planted in 2010.